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What this means. A wallet put $509.4k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 68% chance. It won. This wallet has a losing record: -19.3 pts vs the price over 28 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$509.4k
BUY Yes @ 68¢ · 754,316 shares in 4 fills
Size ≥ $250k4 fills in 1h8.2× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet surfandturf took Yes (buy) for $509.4k at an average 68¢. At that price the market implied a 68% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $509.4k+3
4 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 68¢ means
68%chance the market gave
−208American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 68¢
- Implied odds
- 67.5%
- As American odds
- −208 no vig
- Size
- $509.4k
- Placed
- Jun 20, 14:33 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 20, 16:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- surfandturf
- Tx
- 0x0ca65ecf…
This wallet's graded record
10/28-19.3 pts
expected 15.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +32 ptsYes price · entry 68¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $297.5k 7.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.1k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $32.3k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $32.0k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.8k 2.0× usual |
excluded |