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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did +96.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+96.3 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$170.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$38.0k
Last 30 days −$0 · $2.32M volume · 5,223 trades · since Dec 03, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$106.4k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
325d
1489 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | +96.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) | LOW SELL Netherlands @ 33¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) | LOW BUY Netherlands @ 49¢ | $14.5k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL Yes @ 39¢ | $25.7k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $34.0k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $32.3k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $22.0k | called |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $17.4k | excluded |
 Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | LOW SELL Yes @ 96.3¢ | $12.2k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x09d28b…