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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -48.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-48.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$1.45M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±50.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$116.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $8.94M volume · 1,056 trades · since Nov 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$112.2k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
37%
240 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
249 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -48.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Score | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $59.8k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $61.3k | excluded |
| Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $35.0k | called |
| Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $41.4k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL Yes @ 49¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $82.2k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | MED BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $66.2k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW SELL Yes @ 75¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $42.5k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW SELL Yes @ 66¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $31.7k | excluded |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $67.6k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $48.1k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $32.0k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $23.2k | excluded |
| Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 28¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $36.1k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $34.6k | excluded |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score | LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ | $164.7k 5.2× usual |
excluded |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $74.0k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $65.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $39.7k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $44.5k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $20.4k | called |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Spurs @ 93.7¢ | $74.6k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Spurs @ 53¢ | $41.2k | excluded |
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