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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did -34.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-34.1 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$227.0k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$189.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.57M volume · 113 trades · since Jan 31, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$309.0k
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$495.3k
Closed-position win rate
88%
34 closed
Wallet age · markets
266d
46 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | -34.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $14.1k | called |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $14.1k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.8k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 50¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 47¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $43.4k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 72¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 82¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
 UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Fiziev @ 54¢ | $27.0k | missed |
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