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What this means. A wallet put $860.8k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 99% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
$860.8k
BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ · 866,321 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $250kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1h17.2× this wallet's usual betEconomy

What happened

Wallet elmcap2 took Yes (buy) for $860.8k at an average 99.4¢. At that price the market implied a 99% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded.

Why this was flagged

MED
Size $860.8k+3
Near-certain price-2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 99¢ means
99%chance the market gave
−15470American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins

Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.

Entry price
99.4¢
Implied odds
99.4%
Size
$860.8k
Placed
Jan 27, 11:58 EST
Market close
Jan 27, 19:00 EST
Result
Yes
Counts toward score
yes
Wallet
elmcap2
Tx
0x0c144c4a…
This wallet's graded record
3/3+3.7 pts
expected 2.9 from price
Share this receipt

Entry to resolution

Grade +1 pts
Yes price · entry 99.4¢ · resolved Yes
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢ Whale entry 99.4¢ · $860.8k WHALE $860.8K @ 99.4¢ CALLED
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Other flags on this market

Market page →
MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $55.0k
2.8× usual
0% tianjiyuyunzhilu268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% scottilicious PROVEN268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $139.9k
4.0× usual
0% pako268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $30.0k0% ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $30.0k0% Treadmilled268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% toytrucks268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$55.0k
LOW tianjiyuyunzhilu · 268d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW PROVEN scottilicious · 268d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$139.9k
MED pako · 268d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$30.0k
LOW PROVEN ArmageddonRewardsBilly · 268d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$30.0k
LOW Treadmilled · 268d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW toytrucks · 268d ago