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What this means. A wallet put $48.1k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 4% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$48.1k
SELL Yes @ 96.2¢ · 50,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet LlamaEnjoyer took Yes (sell) for $48.1k at an average 96.2¢. At that price the market implied a 4% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $48.1k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 96.2¢
- Implied odds
- 3.8%
- Size
- $48.1k
- Placed
- Feb 28, 17:08 EST
- Market close
- Feb 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- LlamaEnjoyer
- Tx
- 0x000c0de1…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+54.0 pts
expected 0.5 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $83.5k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $103.1k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |