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What this means. A wallet put $29.6k on not No, at a price that gave it a 2% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$29.6k
SELL No @ 97.5¢ · 30,317 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Politics
What happened
Wallet Kickstand7 took No (sell) for $29.6k at an average 97.5¢. At that price the market implied a 2% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $29.6k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 97.5¢
- Implied odds
- 2.5%
- Size
- $29.6k
- Placed
- Apr 12, 14:48 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 11, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Kickstand7
- Tx
- 0xfb3bc9bd…
This wallet's graded record
2/4+1.7 pts
expected 1.9 from price
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Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $14.0k | excluded |