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What this means. A wallet put $37.7k on No, at a price that gave it a 98% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has a losing record: -17.8 pts vs the price over 20 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$37.7k
BUY No @ 98.1¢ · 38,420 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hOther
What happened
Wallet aenews2 took No (buy) for $37.7k at an average 98.1¢. At that price the market implied a 98% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $37.7k+1
Near-certain price-2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 98¢ means
98%chance the market gave
−5163American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 98.1¢
- Implied odds
- 98.1%
- Size
- $37.7k
- Placed
- Apr 21, 15:51 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 21, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- aenews2
- Tx
- 0xee4f047e…
This wallet's graded record
12/20-17.8 pts
expected 15.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +2 ptsNo price · entry 98.1¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |