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Will Trump dance today?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $50.0k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Will Trump dance today?excluded$50.0k
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ · 50,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet scout took Yes (sell) for $50.0k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $50.0k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 0.1%
- Size
- $50.0k
- Placed
- Apr 28, 08:58 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 24, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- scout
- Tx
- 0xec27287e…
This wallet's graded record
4/4+4.8 pts
expected 3.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump dance today? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $71.9k | excluded |
| Will Trump dance today? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Trump dance today? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $69.9k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Trump dance today? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will Trump dance today? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Trump dance today? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $35.0k | excluded |