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What this means. A wallet put $45.5k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 2% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?excluded
$45.5k
SELL Yes @ 97.9¢ · 46,500 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideOther

What happened

Wallet anon.1980.123 took Yes (sell) for $45.5k at an average 97.9¢. At that price the market implied a 2% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.

Why this was flagged

LOW
Size $45.5k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
Entry price
97.9¢
Implied odds
2.1%
Size
$45.5k
Placed
May 22, 20:59 EDT
Market close
May 23, 20:00 EDT
Result
No
Counts toward score
yes
Wallet
anon.1980.123
Tx
0xebdd427f…
This wallet's graded record
1/2-7.7 pts
expected 1.2 from price

Entry to resolution

Grade +98 pts
Yes price · entry 97.9¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢ Whale entry 97.9¢ · $45.5k WHALE $45.5K @ 97.9¢ CALLED
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Other flags on this market

Market page →
MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResultOpen on Polymarket
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $29.3k100% strike123150d agoexcluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $199.7k
2.6× usual
100% 033033033150d agoexcluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $30.6k0% alliswell150d agoexcluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $20.7k100% FlyingPlaty150d agoexcluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $30.1k100% 0x1af7…ff87150d agoexcluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $12.3k1% strike123150d agoexcluded