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FlyingPlaty

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +5.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+5.0 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$611.8k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$263.5k
Last 30 days +$3,789 · $37.92M volume · 20,518 trades · since Oct 02, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$174.5k
Open P&L · 11 positions
+$2,599
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
753d
2161 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other221.9+5.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ $19.2k96% 46d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $214.8k
10.2× usual
100% 129d agoexcluded
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $12.1k100% 137d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $61.7k
2.9× usual
100% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $66.4k
3.2× usual
100% 145d agoexcluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $20.7k100% 150d agoexcluded
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston CougarsLOW SELL Houston Cougars @ 3.1¢ $13.1k97% 211d agoexcluded
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston CougarsLOW SELL Houston Cougars @ 57¢ $16.8k43% 211d agoexcluded
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $36.4k100% 256d agoexcluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $66.2k
3.1× usual
100% 262d agoexcluded
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $11.1k94% 263d agocalled
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $52.1k
2.5× usual
100% 266d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $21.1k100% 273d agoexcluded

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