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What this means. A wallet put $10.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 96% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.2k
BUY No @ 95.5¢ · 10,678 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet TariqAlM took No (buy) for $10.2k at an average 95.5¢. At that price the market implied a 96% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.2k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 96¢ means
96%chance the market gave
−2133American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 95.5¢
- Implied odds
- 95.5%
- Size
- $10.2k
- Placed
- Jun 10, 09:06 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- TariqAlM
- Tx
- 0xdf94a7f1…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-95.5 pts
expected 1.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -96 ptsNo price · entry 95.5¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $134.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |