← Wallets
−$604Yes · avg 10¢ → 2.5¢ · $196−$519Yes · avg 9.6¢ → 1.4¢ · $85−$255Yes · avg 8.3¢ → 1.8¢ · $73−$98Yes · avg 13¢ → 3.1¢ · $32
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -95.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-95.5 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$32.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$13.7k
Last 30 days −$217 · $87.3k volume · 20 trades · since Mar 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$371
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$13.3k
Closed-position win rate
67%
3 closed
Wallet age · markets
219d
9 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -95.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢ | $10.2k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 88¢ | $10.9k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $10.9k | called |
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