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What this means. A wallet put $10.1k on not No, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?excluded
$10.1k
SELL No @ 99.6¢ · 10,153 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other

What happened

Wallet DaytonaOne took No (sell) for $10.1k at an average 99.6¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.

Why this was flagged

LOW
Size $10.1k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
Entry price
99.6¢
Implied odds
0.4%
Size
$10.1k
Placed
Jan 28, 00:35 EST
Market close
Jan 30, 19:00 EST
Result
No
Counts toward score
yes
Wallet
DaytonaOne
Tx
0xdb28b7da…
This wallet's graded record
4/5+3.4 pts
expected 3.8 from price

Entry to resolution

Grade -0 pts
No price · entry 99.6¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢ Whale entry 99.6¢ · $10.1k WHALE $10.1K @ 99.6¢ MISSED
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Other flags on this market

Market page →
MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $23.8k0% cqs265d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $10.3k0% MisTKy3265d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $23.4k100% noreasapa265d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $39.9k0% 0x0804…1c31265d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $10.1k0% 0xfd87…6957265d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $53.9k
2.7× usual
0% UwO265d agoexcluded