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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?called
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did +3.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +1.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.4 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$1.27M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$8k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? at 87¢) and the edge is +1.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 94% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$55.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $8.36M volume · 7,143 trades · since Oct 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$55.7k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$1
Closed-position win rate
87%
167 closed
Wallet age · markets
360d
167 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5 | 4 | 3.8 | +3.4 pts |
History
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?excludedBUY No @ 98.2¢$12.7k
LOW DaytonaOne · 205d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?excludedBUY No @ 97.3¢$17.4k
LOW DaytonaOne · 207d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?calledBUY No @ 95.5¢$11.2k
LOW DaytonaOne · 293d ago
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