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What this means. A wallet put $21.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 37% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$21.0k
BUY Yes @ 37¢ · 56,633 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet cynical.reason took Yes (buy) for $21.0k at an average 37¢. At that price the market implied a 37% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $21.0k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 37¢ means
37%chance the market gave
+170American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 37¢
- Implied odds
- 37.0%
- Size
- $21.0k
- Placed
- Apr 28, 09:32 EDT
- Market close
- May 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- cynical.reason
- Tx
- 0xd05f265a…
This wallet's graded record
1/2-37.7 pts
expected 1.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $50.2k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $46.5k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $40.7k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $54.9k | excluded |