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What this means. A wallet put $10.1k on No, at a price that gave it a 98% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.1k
BUY No @ 97.5¢ · 10,322 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet 0x4488…e319 took No (buy) for $10.1k at an average 97.5¢. At that price the market implied a 98% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.1k+0
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 98¢ means
98%chance the market gave
−3900American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 97.5¢
- Implied odds
- 97.5%
- Size
- $10.1k
- Placed
- Feb 23, 11:44 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- 0x4488…e319
- Tx
- 0xc985ba93…
This wallet's graded record
11/12+12.9 pts
expected 9.5 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $60.2k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $77.7k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $1.01M 26.3× usual |
excluded |