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Will France win on 2026-07-18?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $412.5k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 56% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Will France win on 2026-07-18?excluded$412.5k
BUY Yes @ 56¢ · 736,659 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $250k2 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)6.5× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet mentionmarket took Yes (buy) for $412.5k at an average 56¢. At that price the market implied a 56% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $412.5k+3
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 56¢ means
56%chance the market gave
−127American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 56¢
- Implied odds
- 56.0%
- As American odds
- −127 no vig
- Size
- $412.5k
- Placed
- Jul 18, 16:45 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 18, 17:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- mentionmarket
- Tx
- 0xc641fc3d…
This wallet's graded record
2/5-9.7 pts
expected 2.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -56 ptsYes price · entry 56¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $210.3k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $40.1k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $38.1k | excluded |