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Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?excluded
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?excluded
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?excluded
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +42.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+42.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$2.76M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$96.9k
Last 30 days +$565 · $31.80M volume · 22,479 trades · since Apr 03, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$395.9k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
569d
4272 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +42.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $40.1k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 98¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY Belgium @ 96¢ | $62.5k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED SELL Yes @ 85¢ | $80.8k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $79.8k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢ | $60.4k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93.8¢ | $61.0k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ | $59.4k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $34.1k | called |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW SELL Yes @ 63¢ | $35.0k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $51.1k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 51¢ | $50.4k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $88.6k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $34.3k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 94.1¢ | $78.4k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 73¢ | $57.3k | missed |
 LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs | LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 99.7¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | LOW BUY KT Rolster @ 94¢ | $20.9k | excluded |
 Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 99.9¢ | $23.3k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $41.6k | excluded |
 Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 99.7¢ | $40.8k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Celtics @ 98¢ | $28.5k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 92.6¢ | $25.9k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $24.7k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 99¢ | $36.5k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW SELL Suns @ 99.9¢ | $29.8k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 98.8¢ | $29.5k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ | $130.6k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $130.1k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 99.9¢ | $35.1k | excluded |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Clippers @ 99.9¢ | $71.8k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Celtics @ 99.9¢ | $71.8k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.3k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢ | $29.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $49.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $60.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ | $26.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $100.0k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $101.0k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $100.3k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
 LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | LOW BUY Gen.G @ 99.9¢ | $100.2k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $77.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ | $32.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $48.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $66.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ | $22.9k | excluded |
 LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | LOW BUY Invictus Gaming @ 98.1¢ | $40.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $27.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $47.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $26.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
 Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW SELL Seahawks @ 99.9¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 84¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?excludedBUY Yes @ 98.3¢$60.4k
LOW llllllllllllllllllllllll · 116d ago
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?excludedBUY Yes @ 93.8¢$61.0k
LOW llllllllllllllllllllllll · 117d ago
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?excludedBUY Yes @ 92¢$51.1k
LOW llllllllllllllllllllllll · 129d ago
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