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What this means. A wallet put $28.9k on No, at a price that gave it a 15% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$28.9k
BUY No @ 15¢ · 192,919 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)Sports
What happened
Wallet RiskIsForLosers took No (buy) for $28.9k at an average 15¢. At that price the market implied a 15% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $28.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 15¢ means
15%chance the market gave
+567American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 15¢
- Implied odds
- 15.0%
- As American odds
- +567 no vig
- Size
- $28.9k
- Placed
- Jul 03, 18:06 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 03, 18:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- RiskIsForLosers
- Tx
- 0xc438dcb7…
This wallet's graded record
1/3-8.0 pts
expected 1.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +85 ptsNo price · entry 15¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $90.4k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $79.6k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $40.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $999.0k 19.2× usual |
excluded |