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What this means. A wallet put $59.3k on not No, at a price that gave it a 20% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$59.3k
SELL No @ 80¢ · 74,104 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)2.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet 0x4488…e319 took No (sell) for $59.3k at an average 80¢. At that price the market implied a 20% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $59.3k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 80¢
- Implied odds
- 20.0%
- Size
- $59.3k
- Placed
- Feb 27, 08:24 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- 0x4488…e319
- Tx
- 0xbb26a6df…
This wallet's graded record
11/12+12.9 pts
expected 9.5 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.3k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $222.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $22.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |