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What this means. A wallet put $40.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 89% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$40.0k
BUY No @ 89¢ · 44,727 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet jamesboy took No (buy) for $40.0k at an average 89¢. At that price the market implied a 89% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $40.0k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 89¢ means
89%chance the market gave
−846American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 89¢
- Implied odds
- 89.4%
- Size
- $40.0k
- Placed
- Jun 12, 04:01 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- jamesboy
- Tx
- 0xb5cbd45f…
This wallet's graded record
0/3-87.6 pts
expected 2.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -89 ptsNo price · entry 89¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $134.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |