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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did -87.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-87.6 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$96.0k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$96.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $142.6k volume · 14 trades · since Jun 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3,036
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$96.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
5 closed
Wallet age · markets
135d
8 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 0 | 2.6 | -87.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $40.0k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $24.0k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $32.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1cb3b5…