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What this means. A wallet put $18.8k on not No, at a price that gave it a 6% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$18.8k
SELL No @ 94¢ · 20,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took No (sell) for $18.8k at an average 94¢. At that price the market implied a 6% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $18.8k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 94¢
- Implied odds
- 6.0%
- Size
- $18.8k
- Placed
- May 11, 14:41 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 29, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly
- Tx
- 0xb5c164ea…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.3k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $29.9k | excluded |