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What this means. A wallet put $11.1k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 24% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$11.1k
BUY Yes @ 24¢ · 45,669 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took Yes (buy) for $11.1k at an average 24¢. At that price the market implied a 24% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $11.1k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 24¢ means
24%chance the market gave
+310American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 24¢
- Implied odds
- 24.4%
- Size
- $11.1k
- Placed
- May 20, 10:17 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0xab23d5f8…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $134.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |