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What this means. A wallet put $168.6k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 3% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$168.6k
SELL Yes @ 97.4¢ · 173,128 shares
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)5.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet 0xb2d7…312c took Yes (sell) for $168.6k at an average 97.4¢. At that price the market implied a 3% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $168.6k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 97.4¢
- Implied odds
- 2.6%
- Size
- $168.6k
- Placed
- Feb 28, 02:01 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- 0xb2d7…312c
- Tx
- 0xa8d9b1bb…
This wallet's graded record
0/2-33.0 pts
expected 0.7 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.3k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $222.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $22.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |