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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -33.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-33.0 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$320.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$222.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.77M volume · 117 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$291.6k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$69.6k
Closed-position win rate
67%
9 closed
Wallet age · markets
273d
14 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.7 | -33.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 83¢ | $52.6k | missed |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $42.8k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $17.0k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 97.4¢ | $168.6k 5.4× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 25¢ | $19.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xb2d7ce…