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US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $156.7k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded$156.7k
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ · 157,000 shares in 4 fills
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog side4 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)6.3× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet Kevindoto took Yes (sell) for $156.7k at an average 99.8¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $156.7k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
4 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.8¢
- Implied odds
- 0.2%
- Size
- $156.7k
- Placed
- Feb 02, 10:23 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Kevindoto
- Tx
- 0x9d25d6f6…
This wallet's graded record
1/2-10.0 pts
expected 1.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $64.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $26.1k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $17.0k | excluded |