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What this means. A wallet put $15.3k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 70% chance. It lost. This wallet has no graded bets yet. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?missed
$15.3k
BUY Yes @ 70¢ · 21,966 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other

What happened

Wallet 0xa6bc…569b took Yes (buy) for $15.3k at an average 70¢. At that price the market implied a 70% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.

Why this was flagged

LOW
Size $15.3k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 70¢ means
70%chance the market gave
−231American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins

Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.

Entry price
70¢
Implied odds
69.8%
Size
$15.3k
Placed
Feb 13, 03:31 EST
Market close
Aug 18, 15:00 EDT
Result
No
Counts toward score
yes
Wallet
0xa6bc…569b
Tx
0x9cd0ed03…
Share this receipt

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Market page →
MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $89.9k
3.0× usual
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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $32.3k0% Kevindoto296d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $45.0k
2.4× usual
100% TeemuPukki296d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $30.0k100% hollyber296d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $10.7k100% 0x7ae4…daf6296d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $50.0k100% Alexparker296d agoexcluded