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What this means. A wallet put $15.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 86% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.0k
BUY No @ 86¢ · 17,455 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet cezarn132 took No (buy) for $15.0k at an average 86¢. At that price the market implied a 86% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.0k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 86¢ means
86%chance the market gave
−611American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 86¢
- Implied odds
- 85.9%
- Size
- $15.0k
- Placed
- Jun 01, 14:23 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- cezarn132
- Tx
- 0x9a0cb243…
This wallet's graded record
6/9-24.4 pts
expected 8.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $134.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |