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What this means. A wallet put $20.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 50% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$20.0k
BUY Yes @ 50¢ · 40,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Sports
What happened
Wallet unbribeableref took Yes (buy) for $20.0k at an average 50¢. At that price the market implied a 50% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $20.0k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 50¢ means
50%chance the market gave
−100American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 50¢
- Implied odds
- 50.0%
- As American odds
- −100 no vig
- Size
- $20.0k
- Placed
- Jul 16, 09:04 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 18, 17:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- unbribeableref
- Tx
- 0x99653b13…
This wallet's graded record
5/9-4.3 pts
expected 5.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -50 ptsYes price · entry 50¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $210.3k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $40.1k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $38.1k | excluded |