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What this means. A wallet put $20.6k on not No, at a price that gave it a 2% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$20.6k
SELL No @ 97.9¢ · 21,045 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (sell) for $20.6k at an average 97.9¢. At that price the market implied a 2% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $20.6k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 97.9¢
- Implied odds
- 2.1%
- Size
- $20.6k
- Placed
- Feb 17, 08:11 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x92f4088b…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $68.8k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |