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Polymarket · Politics · one bet
OpenAwaiting resolution
$15.8k
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
themagicofcinema sold Yes at 98.5¢. Their side is the other outcome, which the price gave a 1% chance. 16,017 shares, Oct 29, 08:45 EDT.
Plain exchange link. No referral code.
What this means. A wallet put $15.8k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 1% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
[01] Bet
What happened
Wallet themagicofcinema sold Yes for $15.8k at an average 98.5¢. At that price the market implied 1% for the side they took. Open: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
This wallet is 0 of 1 on graded bets, -5.1 pts versus the price. The sample is still short. Big is not the same as right.
[02] Flag
Why it was flagged
Low. Labels do not change the grade. Methodology
Size $15.8k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Politics
[04] Price
Price since the bet
Price since this bet
Since entry -0.7 ptsYes price · entry 98.5¢ · now 99.2¢ · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ | $55.9k | OpenAwaiting resolution |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | MED SELL Yes @ 98.2¢ | $32.0k | OpenAwaiting resolution |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢ | $10.4k | OpenAwaiting resolution |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | MED SELL Yes @ 96.9¢ | $15.5k | OpenAwaiting resolution |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 97.6¢ | $19.5k | OpenAwaiting resolution |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | MED SELL Yes @ 98.8¢ | $265.3k 12.8× usual |
OpenAwaiting resolution |