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What this means. A wallet put $38.2k on not No, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$38.2k
SELL No @ 99.8¢ · 38,268 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Proven wallet2.1× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (sell) for $38.2k at an average 99.8¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $38.2k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.8¢
- Implied odds
- 0.2%
- Size
- $38.2k
- Placed
- Jan 30, 20:55 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x8710797d…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $23.8k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $23.4k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $39.9k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $53.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |