Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

nigiri99 bought No at 73¢. The price gave that side a 73% chance. 25,000 shares, Oct 29, 15:35 EDT.

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What this means. A wallet put $18.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 73% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →

[01] Bet

What happened

Wallet nigiri99 bought No for $18.2k at an average 73¢. At that price the market implied 73% for the side they took. Open: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More It still counts toward the score.

This wallet is 1 of 1 on graded bets, +30.0 pts versus the price. The sample is still short. Big is not the same as right.

[02] Flag

Why it was flagged

Low. Labels do not change the grade. Methodology

Size $18.2k+0

Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Politics

What 73¢ means

73%chance the market gave

−270American odds

$1.00paid per share if No wins

Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.

[04] Price

Price since the bet

Price since this bet

Since entry +3.5 pts

No price · entry 73¢ · now 76¢

Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Related news

Same names, last 7 days

Some rural Republicans in California say redistricting has left them without a voiceNPR · 5h ago A Mississippi Democrat is unexpectedly threatening Republicans’ grip on the US SenateThe Guardian · 13h ago Watch: BBC asks Democrat El-Sayed about tight Michigan Senate raceBBC News · 3d ago

Public RSS headlines that use a team, person, or institution also named in this market. We did not write them, and they are not a read on the odds. Sources and matching rules

[05]

Other flags on this market

Market page

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result	Open on Polymarket
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 73¢	$36.5k	73%	0x4488…e319	8h ago	OpenResolves Nov 3
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 72¢	$43.2k	72%	0x4488…e319	16h ago	OpenResolves Nov 3

Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?OpenResolves Nov 3

BUY No @ 73¢$36.5k

LOW 0x4488…e319 · 8h ago

Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?OpenResolves Nov 3

BUY No @ 72¢$43.2k

LOW 0x4488…e319 · 16h ago

Same event on Kalshi

Kalshi is a separate US exchange. These are large trades or sudden odds moves on this same event, which can be a different answer than this bet. A public nickname shows when the social feed names that side.

NO Mike Rogers	$12.8k	71¢	11h ago
YES Mike Rogers	$60.5k	31¢	15h ago