← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $118.9k on not No, at a price that gave it a 3% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$118.9k
SELL No @ 97.4¢ · 122,140 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)2.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet elmcap2 took No (sell) for $118.9k at an average 97.4¢. At that price the market implied a 3% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $118.9k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 97.4¢
- Implied odds
- 2.6%
- Size
- $118.9k
- Placed
- May 17, 09:16 EDT
- Market close
- May 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- elmcap2
- Tx
- 0x7d48ce77…
This wallet's graded record
3/3+3.7 pts
expected 2.9 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $849.3k 5.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $44.2k | excluded |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $193.8k 7.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $33.0k | excluded |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $781.2k | excluded |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $72.9k 3.7× usual |
excluded |