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What this means. A wallet put $19.6k on not No, at a price that gave it a 3% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$19.6k
SELL No @ 97¢ · 20,201 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took No (sell) for $19.6k at an average 97¢. At that price the market implied a 3% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $19.6k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 97¢
- Implied odds
- 3.0%
- Size
- $19.6k
- Placed
- May 19, 15:46 EDT
- Market close
- May 21, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly
- Tx
- 0x7cb986c8…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -3 ptsNo price · entry 97¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $75.6k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $22.2k | excluded |