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What this means. A wallet put $11.4k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 34% chance. It lost. This wallet has no graded bets yet. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?missed
$11.4k
BUY Yes @ 34¢ · 33,224 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other

What happened

Wallet 0x6155…7ebb took Yes (buy) for $11.4k at an average 34¢. At that price the market implied a 34% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.

Why this was flagged

LOW
Size $11.4k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 34¢ means
34%chance the market gave
+190American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins

Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.

Entry price
34¢
Implied odds
34.4%
Size
$11.4k
Placed
Aug 07, 14:54 EDT
Market close
Aug 18, 15:00 EDT
Result
No
Counts toward score
yes
Wallet
0x6155…7ebb
Tx
0x7b60ad39…
Share this receipt

Entry to resolution

Grade -34 pts
Yes price · entry 34¢ · resolved No
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢ Whale entry 34¢ · $11.4k WHALE $11.4K @ 34¢ MISSED
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Other flags on this market

Market page →
MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $89.9k
3.0× usual
0% Trump2028296d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $32.3k0% Kevindoto296d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $45.0k
2.4× usual
100% TeemuPukki296d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $30.0k100% hollyber296d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $10.7k100% 0x7ae4…daf6296d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $50.0k100% Alexparker296d agoexcluded