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What this means. A wallet put $11.8k on No, at a price that gave it a 98% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 16 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$11.8k
BUY No @ 98.5¢ · 12,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet DonaldinhoTrumpito took No (buy) for $11.8k at an average 98.5¢. At that price the market implied a 98% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $11.8k+0
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 98¢ means
98%chance the market gave
−6530American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 98.5¢
- Implied odds
- 98.5%
- Size
- $11.8k
- Placed
- May 18, 22:05 EDT
- Market close
- May 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- DonaldinhoTrumpito
- Tx
- 0x686c9214…
This wallet's graded record
13/16+1.2 pts
expected 12.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $849.3k 5.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $44.2k | excluded |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $193.8k 7.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $33.0k | excluded |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $781.2k | excluded |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $72.9k 3.7× usual |
excluded |