← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $39.9k on not No, at a price that gave it a 2% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$39.9k
SELL No @ 98.1¢ · 40,667 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)2× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet HongKongMenace took No (sell) for $39.9k at an average 98.1¢. At that price the market implied a 2% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $39.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 98.1¢
- Implied odds
- 1.9%
- Size
- $39.9k
- Placed
- Apr 27, 11:11 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- HongKongMenace
- Tx
- 0x614c22d4…
This wallet's graded record
11/11+12.2 pts
expected 9.7 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -2 ptsNo price · entry 98.1¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $21.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $65.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $21.0k | excluded |