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What this means. A wallet put $23.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 46% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+12.9 pts over 25 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$23.6k
BUY No @ 46¢ · 51,301 shares
Size ≥ $10kProven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ndb1 took No (buy) for $23.6k at an average 46¢. At that price the market implied a 46% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $23.6k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 46¢ means
46%chance the market gave
+117American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 46¢
- Implied odds
- 46.0%
- Size
- $23.6k
- Placed
- May 30, 10:31 EDT
- Market close
- May 30, 18:08 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ndb1
- Tx
- 0x4a8d0eff…
This wallet's graded record
16/25+12.9 pts
expected 12.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -46 ptsNo price · entry 46¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $169.7k 11.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $71.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $44.3k | excluded |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.7k | excluded |