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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did -17.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-17.3 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$927.1k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$454.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.19M volume · 2,294 trades · since May 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$36.5k
Open P&L · 19 positions
−$504.9k
Closed-position win rate
56%
25 closed
Wallet age · markets
171d
42 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | -17.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $19.4k | missed |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 53¢ | $12.0k | missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $29.4k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 18¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ | $82.3k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ | $32.1k | called |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ | $49.6k | missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $32.8k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 17¢ | $30.6k | called |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $75.7k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $98.1k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | MED BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $61.9k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $56.2k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $18.6k | called |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Knicks @ 77¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Spurs @ 25¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
 Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $71.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $36.3k | called |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $99.2k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 80¢ | $79.4k 2.3× usual |
called |
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