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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -3.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-3.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$309.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$14.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.12M volume · 122 trades · since May 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$100.0k
Open P&L · 18 positions
−$113.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
8 closed
Wallet age · markets
148d
26 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.1 | -3.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOW BUY France @ 56¢ | $11.3k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $14.7k | called | |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $169.7k 11.3× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $98.3k 6.6× usual |
called | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $15.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x2ce991…