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What this means. A wallet put $36.3k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 27% chance. It lost. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$36.3k
SELL Yes @ 73¢ · 49,506 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took Yes (sell) for $36.3k at an average 73¢. At that price the market implied a 27% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $36.3k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 73¢
- Implied odds
- 26.6%
- Size
- $36.3k
- Placed
- Jan 29, 14:20 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0x417520dd…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -27 ptsYes price · entry 73¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $64.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $26.1k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $17.0k | excluded |