← Live flags
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $194.3k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 100% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 16 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded$194.3k
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ · 194,739 shares
Size ≥ $100kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)5.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet DonaldinhoTrumpito took Yes (buy) for $194.3k at an average 99.8¢. At that price the market implied a 100% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $194.3k+2
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 100¢ means
100%chance the market gave
—American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.8¢
- Implied odds
- 99.8%
- Size
- $194.3k
- Placed
- Feb 02, 13:43 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- DonaldinhoTrumpito
- Tx
- 0x3f5c44ec…
This wallet's graded record
13/16+1.2 pts
expected 12.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $64.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $26.1k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $17.0k | excluded |