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What this means. A wallet put $259.3k on No, at a price that gave it a 50% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-3.7 pts over 54 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$259.3k
BUY No @ 50¢ · 518,006 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $250k2 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)6.2× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet 0x2c33…0563 took No (buy) for $259.3k at an average 50¢. At that price the market implied a 50% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $259.3k+3
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 50¢ means
50%chance the market gave
−100American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 50¢
- Implied odds
- 50.1%
- As American odds
- −100 no vig
- Size
- $259.3k
- Placed
- Jun 25, 22:30 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 25, 22:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- 0x2c33…0563
- Tx
- 0x3bc6fb56…
This wallet's graded record
27/54-3.7 pts
expected 29.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +50 ptsNo price · entry 50¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $32.6k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $33.2k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | HIGH BUY No @ 93¢ | $163.7k 6.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $52.5k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED SELL Yes @ 45¢ | $141.5k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $46.7k | excluded |