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What this means. A wallet put $39.2k on not No, at a price that gave it a 3% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$39.2k
SELL No @ 96.9¢ · 40,499 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)2.5× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet Casdifer took No (sell) for $39.2k at an average 96.9¢. At that price the market implied a 3% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $39.2k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 96.9¢
- Implied odds
- 3.1%
- Size
- $39.2k
- Placed
- Feb 08, 18:48 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Casdifer
- Tx
- 0x37f8b7bc…
This wallet's graded record
3/5+4.4 pts
expected 2.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $103.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $35.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $24.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.0k | excluded |