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What this means. A wallet put $28.4k on No, at a price that gave it a 74% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$28.4k
BUY No @ 74¢ · 38,142 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Dragontree took No (buy) for $28.4k at an average 74¢. At that price the market implied a 74% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $28.4k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 74¢ means
74%chance the market gave
−291American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 74¢
- Implied odds
- 74.4%
- Size
- $28.4k
- Placed
- Jun 13, 13:01 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Dragontree
- Tx
- 0x2379e828…
This wallet's graded record
3/3+36.8 pts
expected 1.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -74 ptsNo price · entry 74¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $134.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |