Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

elmcap2 bought Yes at 97.2¢. The price gave that side a 97% chance. 54,095 shares, Oct 28, 15:59 EDT.

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Plain exchange link. No referral code.

What this means. A wallet put $52.6k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 97% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →

[01] Bet

What happened

Wallet elmcap2 bought Yes for $52.6k at an average 97.2¢. At that price the market implied 97% for the side they took. Open: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More It still counts toward the score.

This wallet is 1 of 1 on graded bets, +3.1 pts versus the price. The sample is still short. Big is not the same as right.

[02] Flag

Why it was flagged

Low. Labels do not change the grade. Methodology

Size $52.6k+1

Near-certain price-2

Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Politics

What 97¢ means

97%chance the market gave

−3471American odds

$1.00paid per share if Yes wins

Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.

[04] Price

Price since the bet

Price since this bet

Since entry +0.2 pts

Yes price · entry 97.2¢ · now 97.4¢

Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Related news

Same names, last 7 days

California Governor Race 2026: Becerra vs. HiltonMultiState · Google News · 3h ago Anthropic tells California governor courts should be able to block risky AI modelsReuters · Google News · 16h ago Your last-minute guide to California governor candidates’ views on gas prices, EVs and high-speed railLos Angeles Times · Google News · 1d ago California Governor Election Preview: Xavier Becerra vs. Steve HiltonJewish Journal · Google News · 1d ago

Public RSS headlines that use a team, person, or institution also named in this market. We did not write them, and they are not a read on the odds. Sources and matching rules

[05]

Other flags on this market

Market page

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result	Open on Polymarket
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 96.5¢	$18.8k	4%	456ythgbvcadscvb	18h ago	OpenResolves Nov 3

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?OpenResolves Nov 3

SELL Yes @ 96.5¢$18.8k

LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 18h ago