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456ythgbvcadscvb

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +4.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$10.3kYes · avg 68¢ → 84¢ · $56.5kWill Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?+$510No · avg 94.8¢ → 97.4¢ · $19.3kWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?+$486Yes · avg 94.5¢ → 97¢ · $18.9kWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$658Yes · avg 64¢ → 71¢ · $6,953Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?+$147No · avg 74¢ → 78¢ · $3,248Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?+$89No · avg 70¢ → 74¢ · $1,860Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?+$200No · avg 82¢ → 91.5¢ · $1,8302026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House−$652Yes · avg 35¢ → 26¢ · $1,785
Price-adjusted edge
+4.8 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$845.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$203.7k
Last 30 days +$4,974 · $45.81M volume · 42,158 trades · since Jun 07, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$379.8k
Open P&L · 16 positions
+$12.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
869d
1405 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy210.9+4.8 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ $15.2k78% 43d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 61¢ $11.4k39% 43d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 49¢ $28.0k51% 51d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 55¢ $10.6k45% 57d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ $10.4k54% 57d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 30¢ $16.7k70% 58d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ $13.4k74% 71d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ $18.5k69% 72d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ $13.0k61% 78d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢ $10.2k47% 81d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 41¢ $16.3k59% 82d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 57¢ $41.6k
2.5× usual
43% 83d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 39¢ $29.2k39% 86d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 76¢ $41.7k
2.5× usual
24% 87d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 73¢ $26.2k27% 89d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ $40.3k
2.5× usual
72% 93d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 85¢ $25.8k15% 94d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ $10.7k82% 94d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 85¢ $17.3k15% 95d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ $16.4k87% 95d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 95.4¢ $10.5k5% 99d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 95.6¢ $46.0k
2.8× usual
4% 100d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 96¢ $11.2k4% 100d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 96.1¢ $47.0k
2.9× usual
4% 100d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ $36.6k
2.2× usual
91% 102d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 93¢ $35.5k
2.2× usual
7% 102d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 61¢ $14.1k39% 103d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 79¢ $20.4k21% 103d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $12.3k85% 106d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 89¢ $26.7k11% 110d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 81¢ $16.2k19% 117d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 81¢ $80.6k
4.9× usual
19% 117d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 81¢ $20.2k19% 120d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ $15.5k83% 129d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 95¢ $15.5k5% 219d agomissed
US recession in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 95.4¢ $10.6k5% 353d agomissed
US recession in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 72¢ $13.7k72% 507d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 78¢$15.2k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 43d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
SELL No @ 61¢$11.4k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 43d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 49¢$28.0k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 51d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
SELL Yes @ 55¢$10.6k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 57d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 54¢$10.4k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 57d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 30¢$16.7k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 58d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 74¢$13.4k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 71d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 69¢$18.5k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 72d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 61¢$13.0k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 78d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 53¢$10.2k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 81d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
SELL Yes @ 41¢$16.3k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 82d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 57¢$41.6k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 83d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 39¢$29.2k
MED 456ythgbvcadscvb · 86d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 76¢$41.7k
MED 456ythgbvcadscvb · 87d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 73¢$26.2k
MED 456ythgbvcadscvb · 89d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 72¢$40.3k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 93d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 85¢$25.8k
MED 456ythgbvcadscvb · 94d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 82¢$10.7k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 94d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 85¢$17.3k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 95d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 87¢$16.4k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 95d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95.4¢$10.5k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 99d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95.6¢$46.0k
MED 456ythgbvcadscvb · 100d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 96¢$11.2k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 100d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 96.1¢$47.0k
MED 456ythgbvcadscvb · 100d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 91¢$36.6k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 102d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 93¢$35.5k
MED 456ythgbvcadscvb · 102d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 61¢$14.1k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 103d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 79¢$20.4k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 103d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 85¢$12.3k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 106d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 89¢$26.7k
MED 456ythgbvcadscvb · 110d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 81¢$16.2k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 117d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 81¢$80.6k
MED 456ythgbvcadscvb · 117d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 81¢$20.2k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 120d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 83¢$15.5k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 129d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95¢$15.5k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 219d ago
US recession in 2025?missed
SELL No @ 95.4¢$10.6k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 353d ago
US recession in 2025?called
BUY No @ 72¢$13.7k
LOW 456ythgbvcadscvb · 507d ago

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